Fall

The much followed volatility index ($VIX) or “fear gauge” is still falling indicating increasing complacency in the markets.  Usefully Proshares offer QID an ultrashort product that fairly well correlates to $VIX which can only be traded in the futures, or on some spread betting platforms.  Personally I prefer the opportunity to purchase it as a [...]

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Don’t mention the ‘D’ word

Some markets have been ramping up quite nicely for some time, stock indices, commodity currencies included.  Theres been a nice bounce in stocks and it may well continue, but by historic measures it is reaching an extended point.
The S&P put/call ratio or $VIX is worth keeping an eye on as it is unlikely to fall [...]

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Opportunities shaping up

It is a good time to get in on the commodities at bargain prices, in real terms, not seen since the start of the decade. With governments flooding the financial system with liquidity globally, it is just a matter of time before this flows through into higher raw materials prices – more paper chasing [...]

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Highlights of 2008

I started the year very bearish on the main indices – and made a good short trade on the DAX30, Germany’s flagship stock index in January after viewing the global stock market situation, Short trade 500 points
Then in February a long in London Sugar netting £867 using my usual scaling in technique, it ended up [...]

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Virtual ETX trading

I have not traded in some time but was tempted by the ETX competition – happy with catching move down in S&P when failed at support, this will rally like there’s no tommorow before Christmas, probably.
I note Apple is at $80 and Nikkei at 7,500.  I suggested a short sale of Apple in June/July from [...]

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FT article in Special Report

Nice article in FT and on FT.com quoting from spreadtrader.wordpress.com.  You may have to register with FT.com to access the special report.

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Watch for a collapse

There are many words of wisdom to be found in texts written by pragmatic, worldly people who happened to get something down in writing before they signed off. Musashi is one of these, here is something relevant to today, in the markets, watching for a collapse, in poise, a loss of rythym here.
I’ve had a [...]

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Commodity conundrum

Couple of interesting charts, above, really nice low risk trade opportunity here, this is offered as an ETF, it is equal weighted coffee, cotton and sugar product, but I usefully use it as a barometer as to when a trade in the softs might be good from the big picture viewpoint.  Coffee near support in [...]

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The great unwind

Silver stocks get beaten up, but this has been in the works for a while now.  I was wondering months back how this chart formation was going to work out, I had though it was going to spring upwards after hitting the long term trend line – but this latest development looks definitively sickly – [...]

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Commodity Bull sees red

This past week saw the biggest fall off in prices in the precious metals since the start of the decade – but even now there could be further downside. The upside is that gold stocks are resting on weekly support / 200 week moving average. Versus gold, there is [...]

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Short sale watch – Apple

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Room with a view

There is an urban myth that goes more than 90% of spread betters lose money – well, this is possible of course, but that means the 10% is getting the other side of all those losses, just a thought.

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Monumental opportunities

Again I have a feeling that the good times are about to roll.  Nikkei a good short a week or so back when it was at 14,550, now lumbering around 13,500 – further to fall.
Now attention back on dollar short – commodities long game, after the rally in the USD, possibly now over.
Gold/silver typically have [...]

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Corn position

Sell order was activated on Friday at the asked for price, £64 in profit (64 points). Early in session tested over 750, but poor finish does not bode well for Monday (for the long side). Looking at the chart – break of trendline and on monthly, this month bar is largest in years [...]

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KC moves

See the large run up in price from 132 to 172 – this followed a period of sideways trading in the 130-140 area. The break of the 140 level (see top blue Bollinger band) was the cue to enter the market. I already had an average position from about 138 of £7pp. [...]

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Commoditize your portfolio…

From now on, due to time pressures I will have to post only on Friday a review of the week, and Sunday for a general Big Picture, “Kitchen Cabinet” overview.
Update on Coffee, well, letting profits run on this one, as it didn’t want to get stopped out in the week when I tightened stops. [...]

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Miyamoto Musashi and trading strategy

Spread betting blog
I would like to ask you, do you think trading is an art, a science or a craft? Can it be learned, if you can improve as a trader with respect to using your trading methodology over time and become more disciplined I think it is fair to say that it is like [...]

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