Apple revisited

Last July I was keen to short Apple from around $170, after falling to around $100 it has staged a tremendous rally – will it fail at $200 at second time…See Short Sale Watch section in blog for original posts.

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Fall

The much followed volatility index ($VIX) or “fear gauge” is still falling indicating increasing complacency in the markets.  Usefully Proshares offer QID an ultrashort product that fairly well correlates to $VIX which can only be traded in the futures, or on some spread betting platforms.  Personally I prefer the opportunity to purchase it as a [...]

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Apple meets target $100

Commodities are really looking like further to fall now, so watching for now and trying to spot and short opportunities, though markets a bit volatile to properly trade, for me at least.

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Amazon short

Thursday was a bearish day, and the last hour of trading on bearish days tend, I have noticed to have the biggest declines of the day.  So, I had a go at a quick short sale on Amazon that I’ve been watching for a while.
I began selling at ten past eight at $74.37, and was [...]

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“Speculation as a fine art”

“I have done my share of trading and have kept fairly well
posted on the stock market for many years and I can say that I
do not recall an instance when a bear raid caused a stock to
decline extensively. What was called bear raiding was nothing
but selling based on accurate knowledge of real conditions.
But it would [...]

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Golden hammer or golden scythe?

Made nice short trade in Amazon yesterday, bought silver.  Time to buy in those Apple shorts.
Got some good thoughts on trading this week, to post Friday.
Very interesting trading week.  Good article.

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Extra-ordinary selloff

Silver and gold stocks getting battered again today, SSRI down 16%, on the day – the biggest one day fall I can remember, possibly if ever in this stock, holders will be in need of its namesake.  This is beginning to look overdone.  I am not feeling so bad for getting stopped out at $12.50 [...]

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Apple short sale

Apple I noticed has cracked under the 50ma on volume, signalling further likely downside. While Amazon 50dma stubbornly refuses to rise over the 200dma.  I am so certain of big breaks in these stocks soon.

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Commodity breakfast

Big sell off across the board today – silver under $17, softs down and cotton at 67, coffee 136, gold under $900.  The Gold Bugs index is under 380 – and Silver Wheaton a great silver stock at $11.50-$11.70.
Just about all down – except lumber, live cattle and lean hogs – which perhaps shows strength [...]

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Friday massive, back up the truck

Interesting day and week really in the markets, bear rally continues in main indices. I am reviewing short opps in internet stock Amazon and long commodities – the softs.
On the commodities first – set the background – oil chart since 2000.

Well, to me, it looks like a spike which could retrace to $80 – [...]

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Apple update

Now is dangerous time to short – its all too clear from charts – best wait to when rally over/up to 50dma which will be around 175 by my reckoning – if it fails and breaks here – still it would be better to wait until a rally over 50dma to prevent getting shorts run [...]

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Chump change

Well, this is the first weekly update starting this week and will have a few nice sections to help me keep track of market activity without getting too close to the market action.
Firstly, Apple has indeed turned lower, see 50 day ma, and Fridays action quite bearish. If it does follow through next week [...]

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Shooting star?

I have been looking closely at the Apple chart on the daily and weekly basis. It is certainly a risky place to enter a short sale – is there any other? – with the trend still showing as up. However, the main market averages are looking still very weak – though will be [...]

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Short sale watch – Apple

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Lehmanade!

“When it rains upstream and froth is coming down on the current, if you want to cross, wait until it settles.” Master Sun
Summer is here, so after watching Lehman decline the charts indicate a further, potential fall off in price shortly, so bar any bounce in price which I don’t think would happen until at [...]

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Upside downsize

Today I have two charts which I am pondering, the first Soybean daily is shaping up to be a tradable opportunity, it may touch the top bollinger band at 1393 before turning sharply lower (this will be my bet) alternatively if it goes through 1400 the bet is off, a good low risk high potential [...]

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Short on S&P500

A trade I have been tracking for sometime is the potential big downdraft expected on the main US indexes – once they catch up on the fact that the key sectors on which the bull run of the last several years has been based have long since broken down – Housebuilders ($HGX) and financials. [...]

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