Don’t mention the ‘D’ word

Some markets have been ramping up quite nicely for some time, stock indices, commodity currencies included.  Theres been a nice bounce in stocks and it may well continue, but by historic measures it is reaching an extended point.
The S&P put/call ratio or $VIX is worth keeping an eye on as it is unlikely to fall [...]

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Trading Commodities in 2009

Both potentially poised to move higher – The top chart, softs composite has broken down trendline, cotton and coffee are looking like they will move higher.
Bonds reverse today.
Low volume stocks rally today, the last trading day of 2008.

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Targets for 2009

Objectives:
Read Profits in Commodities by WD Gann – now this I am assured does not contain any other-worldly theories, or angles – but just good advice by the look of the preview.
Scale into Oil Services stocks (RIG, ETF – IEZ) and agricultural ETF (MOO).
Read Exxon Oil Outlook 2030
Scale into agricultural commodities, probably coffee, sugar.
Watch precious [...]

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Virtual ETX trading

I have not traded in some time but was tempted by the ETX competition – happy with catching move down in S&P when failed at support, this will rally like there’s no tommorow before Christmas, probably.
I note Apple is at $80 and Nikkei at 7,500.  I suggested a short sale of Apple in June/July from [...]

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Reversal day

Today, sentiment shift, time to re-enter long side trades.  Possible Dollar reversal.  Large gains today bode well for coming weeks.  Prices likely reached basing levels.  Will power higher from here.
SSRI $6.31
IEZ $29.00
GDX $18.09
BHP $33.86

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Panic over?

This does look like a v-bounce, 50% retracement of move down to 850.

I was a little annoyed at closing out at $77 when the next day it was $100, but not so bothered now.  Bought this one over a year ago, buried it away, so had to wait for it to come to fruition.
This video [...]

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Amazon short

Thursday was a bearish day, and the last hour of trading on bearish days tend, I have noticed to have the biggest declines of the day.  So, I had a go at a quick short sale on Amazon that I’ve been watching for a while.
I began selling at ten past eight at $74.37, and was [...]

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The great unwind

Silver stocks get beaten up, but this has been in the works for a while now.  I was wondering months back how this chart formation was going to work out, I had though it was going to spring upwards after hitting the long term trend line – but this latest development looks definitively sickly – [...]

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Apple short sale

Apple I noticed has cracked under the 50ma on volume, signalling further likely downside. While Amazon 50dma stubbornly refuses to rise over the 200dma.  I am so certain of big breaks in these stocks soon.

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A real cool hand

Sometimes, trading, there is nothing to do but wait, with respects to Mr Newman…

The recent rally looks to be nearly over, but there are some hazards to short sellers, like to US elections – markets tend to rally in the months prior – and the dollar rally.  Technically, the S&P500 chart [...]

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Commodity Bull sees red

This past week saw the biggest fall off in prices in the precious metals since the start of the decade – but even now there could be further downside. The upside is that gold stocks are resting on weekly support / 200 week moving average. Versus gold, there is [...]

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Apples with apples

Apples relative performance versus main competitors on weekly charts – its been treading water.

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ipocalypse

Couple if items to note
Morgan Stanleys “catastrophic event“
RBS says “global stock crash“
Apple short sale £246 in profit.

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Fallen leaders…

When looking for a confirmation of a bull market that has ended the first place to look is the leaders of the bull run. Google, Apple and the housing and banking stocks were those to have led the run from March 2003. Just had a quick look today to see if they were [...]

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Update on general stock indices

Interesting situation now in the general market with the rally extending in the S&P and US indices. See the charts below.

I believe it is likely the market rally will peter out once it gets much above the blue 50 day ma line. When it turns on volume then its sell time [...]

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Northern Rock on the up

Since opening position at 98.6p it is now 108.0 – I had no idea how much was riding on the trade as opened it with the lowest amount allowed (as per my usual approach) so as to get a feel for the price action and then scale into the position if it goes up.
Well, the [...]

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You heard it here first…

Commodities Higher Before Fed Decision
By STEVENSON JACOBS – 4 hours ago -associated press
NEW YORK (AP) — Commodities prices climbed broadly Thursday as expectations of another U.S. interest rate cut and rebounding global equities markets boosted investors’ appetite for gold, grains and other hard assets.

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Fasten your seat belts…

Now the purge has gone through the system and we are in deep oversold territory it is time to close those shorts and open a position to catch the rally.
Today is likely a reversal day and we could now rally for a few days or into next week.
Corn showing weakness – now at 469 hold [...]

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Get Out Of Google (“GOOG”)!

The 50 day moving average support has failed on higher volume – could see a retest back up to the $685 level. This ones too expensive for me to short (you need about US$7,000) on margin to short it – but being one of the leading stocks of the last few years it [...]

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Themes for 2008…

Usually I will post on a Friday, trades made if any for the week just gone and any commentary or thoughts on the state of the markets that are being traded. For those of you not in the UK you can see some comments and follow up on some of the ticker symbols with www.stockcharts.com [...]

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