Agri-Dollar Trades

This is a chart of a breakout of volume on the Rogers Ag ETN, from last week, this week even more upside has followed through.  Other Agricultural ETFs and ETNs, (ticker: DBA, DJP) also look to have rounded out a base and are looking up.  This all means potentially nice moves in agricultural commodities from [...]

Read Full Post »

Turning points

A couple of charts of interest -  firstly copper which if it does continue lower from here, which technically it appears to be in the process of breaking down, then it could be advanced warning the ‘bubble echo’ effect post 2008 is nearing its end.

Second is Wheat which interestingly, appears to have near enough completed [...]

Read Full Post »

Don’t mention the ‘D’ word

Some markets have been ramping up quite nicely for some time, stock indices, commodity currencies included.  Theres been a nice bounce in stocks and it may well continue, but by historic measures it is reaching an extended point.
The S&P put/call ratio or $VIX is worth keeping an eye on as it is unlikely to fall [...]

Read Full Post »

Trading price not indicators is key

I have had a look at some trading books in my collection and realized my preferred approach is to trade off price, not indicators, using trendlines, pattern breakouts. A copy of Curtis Arnold’s PPS Trading System and a video from Bennett McDowell’s Tradingcoach.com made me realise this. These two pattern recognition systems were [...]

Read Full Post »

Trading Commodities in 2009

Both potentially poised to move higher – The top chart, softs composite has broken down trendline, cotton and coffee are looking like they will move higher.
Bonds reverse today.
Low volume stocks rally today, the last trading day of 2008.

Read Full Post »

Targets for 2009

Objectives:
Read Profits in Commodities by WD Gann – now this I am assured does not contain any other-worldly theories, or angles – but just good advice by the look of the preview.
Scale into Oil Services stocks (RIG, ETF – IEZ) and agricultural ETF (MOO).
Read Exxon Oil Outlook 2030
Scale into agricultural commodities, probably coffee, sugar.
Watch precious [...]

Read Full Post »

Gold oil ratio – chart of the moment

Ag commodities are falling in price as are the softs, coffee, cotton and sugar.  Coffee is just over $1/pound, cotton is just under 40c and sugar is $10.50.
Coffee world carry over stocks are lowest for 50 years.
Quote from forum post for reference:
“What do you guys think about the news out of the “National Federation of [...]

Read Full Post »

Reversal day

Today, sentiment shift, time to re-enter long side trades.  Possible Dollar reversal.  Large gains today bode well for coming weeks.  Prices likely reached basing levels.  Will power higher from here.
SSRI $6.31
IEZ $29.00
GDX $18.09
BHP $33.86

Read Full Post »

Gold/silver

Thinking more downside maybe gold below $650 and silver around $7.50.

Read Full Post »

Silver to gold ratio

Silver to gold ratio, looking like silver is one to follow for % gain wise.  Meanwhile Amazon hits $50 target.

Read Full Post »

Watch for a collapse

There are many words of wisdom to be found in texts written by pragmatic, worldly people who happened to get something down in writing before they signed off. Musashi is one of these, here is something relevant to today, in the markets, watching for a collapse, in poise, a loss of rythym here.
I’ve had a [...]

Read Full Post »

Commodity conundrum

Couple of interesting charts, above, really nice low risk trade opportunity here, this is offered as an ETF, it is equal weighted coffee, cotton and sugar product, but I usefully use it as a barometer as to when a trade in the softs might be good from the big picture viewpoint.  Coffee near support in [...]

Read Full Post »

Amazon short

Thursday was a bearish day, and the last hour of trading on bearish days tend, I have noticed to have the biggest declines of the day.  So, I had a go at a quick short sale on Amazon that I’ve been watching for a while.
I began selling at ten past eight at $74.37, and was [...]

Read Full Post »

The great unwind

Silver stocks get beaten up, but this has been in the works for a while now.  I was wondering months back how this chart formation was going to work out, I had though it was going to spring upwards after hitting the long term trend line – but this latest development looks definitively sickly – [...]

Read Full Post »

Clear break

The British Pound has had a clear trend break, and against the Euro, I just checked today and it has definitely broken out of a recent consolidation range. I am very tempted to buy the Euro:GBP trade but on the other hand, am not really keyed into currencies trading so will probably leave alone. [...]

Read Full Post »

Commodity Bull sees red

This past week saw the biggest fall off in prices in the precious metals since the start of the decade – but even now there could be further downside. The upside is that gold stocks are resting on weekly support / 200 week moving average. Versus gold, there is [...]

Read Full Post »

Silver lining

Snap back rally potential in mining stocks and silver, bought 2/5 silver yesterday before the close at $14.58.  Whichever way you look at it, whether commodities have put in an interim top, or not, a rally is likely close at hand.

Read Full Post »

Commodities on ice… hammered

Watch this space, rare trading opportunities arising in the metals soon.
Coffee, sugar and cotton have not sold off with rest of commod complex.
Amazon up 10% today near recent highs, Apple rallying.

Read Full Post »

Nine lives or tails?

Well, today was a lucky escape – had order just below market to sell Amazon at 75.80, it opended at 75.89 higher, didn’t even look back and closed up over 4% on the day, over the 200 day ma.  Now this appears to be an even better place to short it, but, perhaps wait a [...]

Read Full Post »

Commodity breakfast

Big sell off across the board today – silver under $17, softs down and cotton at 67, coffee 136, gold under $900.  The Gold Bugs index is under 380 – and Silver Wheaton a great silver stock at $11.50-$11.70.
Just about all down – except lumber, live cattle and lean hogs – which perhaps shows strength [...]

Read Full Post »

Supercharged silver bull

I had a look around to see if there was a leveraged silver ETC today – and found the ETFS securities 2x silver product. Great time to enter a longer term position here and can be done with pension money too – for those with a longer term time horizon – remember to sell [...]

Read Full Post »

Shooting star?

I have been looking closely at the Apple chart on the daily and weekly basis. It is certainly a risky place to enter a short sale – is there any other? – with the trend still showing as up. However, the main market averages are looking still very weak – though will be [...]

Read Full Post »

Ags takedown

Today was not a good day to be long, coffee, sugar, soybeans or corn, or a few other ag commodities.
Perhaps the start of a short term correction again in commodities? Fortunately I was not in the market – especially coffee which I was dubious about anyway – this sold off 5% and was down [...]

Read Full Post »

Taming the inflationary monster

Mmm… $200 oil, that should do it, plus a couple of 0.25ml shots in the arm. Full size picture courtesy of Satzinger & Hardenberg

Read Full Post »

Food security

Looking around for more trading opportunities, there is an obvious one waiting on the sidelines which is meat futures!  This is not an area I have ever traded, however, even a cursory look at the monthly charts for Feeder cattle and Lean hogs shows up a clear trading opportunity when / if price breaks through [...]

Read Full Post »

Silver, Cotton, Sugar and Coffee

These commodities have two things in common, which are great for traders, they are price inelastic – per your economics 101 – demand will not change in line with supply shortages leading to price spike potential.
The second is that they are in the lower end of their 30-40 year trading ranges.  So, looks like plenty [...]

Read Full Post »

Corn position

Sell order was activated on Friday at the asked for price, £64 in profit (64 points). Early in session tested over 750, but poor finish does not bode well for Monday (for the long side). Looking at the chart – break of trendline and on monthly, this month bar is largest in years [...]

Read Full Post »

Corn Oil

Short corn from 738 – order in, with stop at 745, I think at this point the risk reward look good, order is as close to market as I dare.
Did Crude oil put in a contract high on the 16th? Closed at low of recent trading range, either will stay in range or if breaks [...]

Read Full Post »

Slow burn or non-linearity candlesticks?

I experienced a minor disturbance today, of a financial nature, it made me reflect on the value of money.
Between 6-7pm I traded Crude oil on the short side, nothing special about that, just that this is not a market I have traded much in the past. Today looked like a reversal day, possible bull [...]

Read Full Post »

Corn breakout

As I mentioned last week, the fast move in corn happened, and the chart shows that it was a perfect example of a Bollinger breakout.  The range 580-620 (approx) was violated to the upside and followed through with a few days of quick upside move.  To catch this I would have placed a stop at [...]

Read Full Post »