Trading price not indicators is key

I have had a look at some trading books in my collection and realized my preferred approach is to trade off price, not indicators, using trendlines, pattern breakouts. A copy of Curtis Arnold’s PPS Trading System and a video from Bennett McDowell’s Tradingcoach.com made me realise this. These two pattern recognition systems were [...]

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Trading Commodities in 2009

Both potentially poised to move higher – The top chart, softs composite has broken down trendline, cotton and coffee are looking like they will move higher.
Bonds reverse today.
Low volume stocks rally today, the last trading day of 2008.

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KC moves

See the large run up in price from 132 to 172 – this followed a period of sideways trading in the 130-140 area. The break of the 140 level (see top blue Bollinger band) was the cue to enter the market. I already had an average position from about 138 of £7pp. [...]

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Cotton again

As of today total profits since 11 December are now over £3,000 (including open P&L below).
Cotton trading higher, holding open, now at around 78.50, opened Friday at 74.40 (£1pp) £410 open profit. Cotton ‘limit up’ today.
Coffee (KC) forced myself to close at least part of position, 2/7 closed for about £60 profit, to reduce [...]

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Coffee news and update

Coffee has been tearing away (NY Coffee KC – Arabica), after selling off on Friday to 149.00 it has risen today to 156.00.  This could be reaching exhaustion on this part of the move an offers an excellent chance to walk away with some good profits.  I will set a stop near the market tommorow, [...]

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Black Coffee…

Last week, on the breakout we had what I understand to be record volume when price exceeded the low 140s – a record for the volume of coffee contracts traded in one day! Here is the view of one veteran trader who has taken a position in coffee.
“I recently (months ago) moved into ag [...]

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Commoditize your portfolio…

From now on, due to time pressures I will have to post only on Friday a review of the week, and Sunday for a general Big Picture, “Kitchen Cabinet” overview.
Update on Coffee, well, letting profits run on this one, as it didn’t want to get stopped out in the week when I tightened stops. [...]

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Coffee update

Coffee trade still on, set tight stops but market just continued higher today – slight correction from yesterday, set stops at 2156 (1), 2148 (1), 2146 (1) and 2120 (2) so only the 2156 got hit before price took off again and setttled at 2181. So still 4/5 of position still open may move [...]

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Coffee spike on the horizon?

Although this chart is a couple of years old now it illustrates nicely the potential upside in NY Coffee (Arabica contract) – the aim is to catch this as it breaks over 14000 (now trading in the range 13000 to 14000) – when I’ll scale in the rest of the 15 unit position. The [...]

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Taking a hard look at Coffee

Setting the scene – the chart is of the Dow Jones Soft Commodities Index. You can see it has had a downtrend for the last 18 months or so and looks to be setting up for a new move upwards. This is the general market condition supporting my view that coffee, one of [...]

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