I have been looking closely at the Apple chart on the daily and weekly basis. It is certainly a risky place to enter a short sale – is there any other? – with the trend still showing as up. However, the main market averages are looking still very weak – though will be due a bounce at some point – bear market rally. In my opinion if the price of Apple cannot make higher ground with the worldwide blitz on PR with the iphone 3G launch then it is headed lower. Don’t get me wrong, this is strictly from a trading viewpoint – I think the iphone is a great device and will get one if this thing works out.
Out of interest I looked up the weekly candlestick shape and it is a ’shooting star’ a warning of lower prices when found in an uptrend (ie recent uptrend since touching 200d ma).
On the plus side – There are four big volume “distribution” days in mid May and early June – the 50 day ma may constrain price below $180.
One the negative side – China mobile and Apple.
Stop is at $182 but will close before if looking like it will get taken out – for a maximum loss of about £700 – but now have some in hand as a buffer with Fridays action. Looking for a “tenner” – $10 down day, that’ll cement my conviction to stay in the trade for a target of $130 or below.
Interestingly, RIMM the main competitor in pushemail handsets of Blackberry fame – see chart break.
What holding up the main stock averages – oil, miners and resource stocks – if they break or oil comes back down to retest $100 barrel then perhaps this will be the catalyst for a major ‘event’ to take prices down to new lows and this could happen sooner rather than later – if there is no Iran incident wildcard event.
Corn trading at about 680 – missed the move here – was about 10 days too early. Lesson not to try and catch a top.
